How is Trump’s war impacting ANZ supplier and retailer strategy?

May 11, 2026

Right now, more shoppers are hunting the deal, so supplier and retailer strategy is focused on pre-store investment and simplifying the shelf – particularly in categories most affected by a big shift in shopper behaviour. This month’s update gives key insights on shopper shifts, so you can best drive value for your retail partners.

Watch the video summary form Simon Ford:

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Video transcript

0:00 The war is on, we’re all feeling the pinch, and shoppers are behaving differently. Welcome to another MD update from me, Simon Ford, Shopper Intelligence.

0:11 This month it’s all about everything that’s going on in the world in terms of cost of living, fuel prices, interest rates, and critically the important impact it’s had on how shoppers are behaving, and what this means for you in terms of your investment priorities.

0:28 So in a nutshell, here’s what we see. Three big things. First of all, the increase in higher planning, pre-trip, categories and products, your categories, your products. 0:40 Products are more likely to be thought about and decided upon pre-trip. So are you investing enough pre-store to trigger that decision?

0:51 And critically, it’s all about price. So price is playing a bigger role pre-store in terms of triggering the decision to go and shop in a particular store and get that deal.

1:04 And then when shoppers are at the shelf, they are looking for a nice, simple shell, find what they want, what they came in for.

1:11 And again, critically, the value proposition. So mechanics like unit pricing, anything that can easily and quickly signal great value is more important. 1:20 So all of these things were important before, but they are increasingly important through this time period. Critically, again, the decision you have to make is, well, you know, where does your category sit on this?

1:33 Where does it rank? And how important is your category in driving traffic into the store based on a price proposition?

1:41 How important and how satisfied is the shoppers in your category with the simplicity of shelf unit pricing and so on?

1:48 And again, we can help with all of this. Please reach out to your account team or myself, and we can tell you where you sit.

1:56 So let’s just dive into all of that in a little bit more detail. So what we’re looking at here is the change quarter on quarter.

2:03 So this is comparing quarter 4, 2025 with quarter 1, 2026. All of these numbers on the left in Australia, on the right in New Zealand, are the differences quarter on quarter.

2:18 They might not look like big percentage movements, but they are given the scale of what the sample of the shoppers we’re talking to.

2:26 tens of thousands in each region, each quarter. And have a look at this, how not only planned shopping is increasing in both regions, but what about that for a 12% jump in New Zealand on categories?

2:40 That’s the main reason to go shopping. So this idea that shoppers are premeditating their decision based on your product pre-store is not only important to driving traffic into the category and obviously for your brand, but just imagine how important this is to the retailer in terms of grabbing that

2:58 product, but also grabbing the basket that comes with it. Your product is even more important to the retailer if they want to win.

3:06 So get on the list, have a think about the investment you’re putting in pre-store. store. Now, what does that investment look like?

3:14 Well, price is a massive role to play. Not only is it getting more important in Australia, but again, it’s important for at that uplift in New Zealand, 6% increase in promotions pre-store. 3:21 Encourage me to go shopping. Get it right in the catalogue or in the mailer. Get it right pre-store and you will drive people into your category more than you were before.

3:24 So this is all about uplifts because of what’s happening in the world and how it’s hitting our pocket. Category is a price beacon for the retailer.

3:39 Again, it’s important for you and your brands and your category, but also So the halo impact it has on driving people into the store and what they think about the retailer and their price proposition.

3:59 And then finally, a bit big movement at shelf as well. When shoppers are coming in, they’re premeditated. They know what they want.

4:06 They’re looking for a price proposition. Make it simple. Make it simple at shelf, layout, range, merchandising, signage, unit pricing. Make it nice and clear, not only in terms of the product they’re looking for, but the price, the price point, the value proposition they’re getting.

4:24 If you don’t get it right, they are more likely than they were before to either defer purchase or buy nothing at all and of course everybody loses if that happens.

4:36 Thanks very much, see you next time.

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